racinglines
Quickstart
racinglines is a Python package first: the web app and the hosted MCP server run the same code. These are
the quickstart's commands, run with --demo on a made-up Formula 1 world with a Mario Kart grid that ships
with the package, recorded and replayed here; nothing runs on this page.
The F1 parts after it are recorded on the real 2026 Singapore Grand Prix weekend: its data and the
Polymarket prices we recorded.
Press Play on each step to run it, at your own pace alongside your own terminal.
Part 1: Kart quickstart
1. 📦 Install racinglines
In a virtualenv with Python 3.11+: the package with its database extra (from a clone of racinglines-public, `pip install -e ".[web]"`).
pip install "racinglines[db]"2. 🍄 Build and look at the demo store
The first --demo command builds the store (a few minutes, with a progress bar): the database, the synthetic files, the real ingest and the exchange links. Later commands reuse it.
racinglines db stats --demodemo: building the kart pack's store (outdated): database racinglines_demo_kart, folder data/demo/kart. Synthetic data, made once (a few minutes). 🔧 demo store 0/7 creating the database 🔧 demo store 1/7 schema and reference data (alembic upgrade head, seed) 🔧 demo store 2/7 the pack's data files 🔧 demo store generating: 2024 R01 Mario Kart Stadium 🔧 demo store generating: 2025 R01 Mario Kart Stadium 🔧 demo store generating: 2026 R01 Mario Kart Stadium 🔧 demo store generating: files written 🔧 demo store generating: exchange odds 2026-09 🔧 demo store generating: exchange odds 2026-10 🔧 demo store generating: exchange odds 2026-11 🔧 demo store 3/7 racinglines data ingest f1 --years 2024-2026 🔧 demo store 4/7 racinglines model forecast f1 --save --sims 2000 🔧 demo store 5/7 racinglines data pm-links-import f1 🔧 demo store 6/7 racinglines data pm-links-import f1 --exchange kalshi 🔧 demo store 7/7 ready demo: the kart store is ready (f1 data; `racinglines db stats --demo kart`) Let's-a go! 🍄 ╭─ 📦 database racinglines_demo_kart ──────────────────────────────────────────╮ │ 📅 calendar 🏁 results 🔮 model │ │ sports 8 athletes 20 model runs 1 │ │ leagues 8 athlete identifiers 20 race predictions 60 │ │ competitions 8 results 3,300 standings predictions 20 │ │ categories 11 splits 0 │ │ venues 27 source files 33 │ │ events 36 │ │ races 36 │ │ rounds 165 │ ╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯ coverage competition year category events rounds results ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── f1_wdc 2024 DRV 12 60 1,200 f1_wdc 2025 DRV 12 60 1,200 f1_wdc 2026 DRV 9 45 900
3. 📊 Backtest the model
Every past race priced as of before the weekend, before qualifying and before the race, with track features on and off, scored against the results and against uniform and grid baselines.
racinglines model backtest kart --demoprogress 0/1 building history (track features on) 📊 backtest, track features on progress 10/33 2024 R10 rainbow-road progress 20/33 2025 R08 mount-wario progress 30/33 2026 R06 thwomp-ruins progress 33/33 2026 R09 bowser-s-castle 📊 Track features ON: mean over 32 races ╭────────┬─────────────┬─────────────┬─────────┬────────┬──────────────────┬──────────╮ │ market │ stage │ model Brier │ uniform │ grid │ skill vs uniform │ log loss │ ├────────┼─────────────┼─────────────┼─────────┼────────┼──────────────────┼──────────┤ │ win │ pre weekend │ 0.0431 │ 0.0475 │ – │ ▉ +9% │ 0.1518 │ │ │ pre quali │ 0.0405 │ 0.0475 │ – │ █▍ +15% │ 0.1388 │ │ │ pre race │ 0.0381 │ 0.0475 │ 0.0410 │ █▉ +20% │ 0.1266 │ ├────────┼─────────────┼─────────────┼─────────┼────────┼──────────────────┼──────────┤ │ podium │ pre weekend │ 0.0988 │ 0.1275 │ – │ ██▎ +23% │ 0.3155 │ │ │ pre quali │ 0.0913 │ 0.1275 │ – │ ██▊ +28% │ 0.3058 │ │ │ pre race │ 0.0772 │ 0.1275 │ 0.0824 │ ███▉ +39% │ 0.2699 │ ├────────┼─────────────┼─────────────┼─────────┼────────┼──────────────────┼──────────┤ │ top10 │ pre weekend │ 0.1662 │ 0.2500 │ – │ ███▎ +34% │ 0.5105 │ │ │ pre quali │ 0.1543 │ 0.2500 │ – │ ███▊ +38% │ 0.4897 │ │ │ pre race │ 0.1295 │ 0.2500 │ 0.1345 │ ████▊ +48% │ 0.4353 │ ╰────────┴─────────────┴─────────────┴─────────┴────────┴──────────────────┴──────────╯ 🏁 favourite won 34% of 32 races · rank correlation 0.83 · mean winner probability 22.7% best call 2024 R04 Royal Raceway: Donkey Kong won at 48.6% upset 2024 R08 Mount Wario: Donkey Kong won at 1.7% (favourite Peach) progress 0/1 building history (track features off) 📊 backtest, track features off progress 10/33 2024 R10 rainbow-road progress 20/33 2025 R08 mount-wario progress 30/33 2026 R06 thwomp-ruins progress 33/33 2026 R09 bowser-s-castle 📊 Track features OFF: mean over 32 races ╭────────┬─────────────┬─────────────┬─────────┬────────┬──────────────────┬──────────╮ │ market │ stage │ model Brier │ uniform │ grid │ skill vs uniform │ log loss │ ├────────┼─────────────┼─────────────┼─────────┼────────┼──────────────────┼──────────┤ │ win │ pre weekend │ 0.0437 │ 0.0475 │ – │ ▊ +8% │ 0.1629 │ │ │ pre quali │ 0.0407 │ 0.0475 │ – │ █▍ +14% │ 0.1391 │ │ │ pre race │ 0.0377 │ 0.0475 │ 0.0410 │ ██ +21% │ 0.1240 │ ├────────┼─────────────┼─────────────┼─────────┼────────┼──────────────────┼──────────┤ │ podium │ pre weekend │ 0.1033 │ 0.1275 │ – │ █▉ +19% │ 0.3356 │ │ │ pre quali │ 0.0915 │ 0.1275 │ – │ ██▊ +28% │ 0.3104 │ │ │ pre race │ 0.0768 │ 0.1275 │ 0.0824 │ ███▉ +40% │ 0.2650 │ ├────────┼─────────────┼─────────────┼─────────┼────────┼──────────────────┼──────────┤ │ top10 │ pre weekend │ 0.1879 │ 0.2500 │ – │ ██▍ +25% │ 0.5659 │ │ │ pre quali │ 0.1573 │ 0.2500 │ – │ ███▋ +37% │ 0.4944 │ │ │ pre race │ 0.1296 │ 0.2500 │ 0.1345 │ ████▊ +48% │ 0.4326 │ ╰────────┴─────────────┴─────────────┴─────────┴────────┴──────────────────┴──────────╯ 🏁 favourite won 38% of 32 races · rank correlation 0.83 · mean winner probability 23.1% best call 2024 R04 Royal Raceway: Donkey Kong won at 52.3% upset 2024 R08 Mount Wario: Donkey Kong won at 1.6% (favourite Peach) Per-race rows -> data/demo/kart/runs/f1/backtests/backtest_20261012_0427.csv
4. 🔮 Forecast the rest of the season
The next races (Rainbow Road is a sprint weekend) and both championships; --save stores the run the book and the web app read.
racinglines model forecast kart --demo --save🔮 forecast 2026 · cutoff 2026-10-12 04:27 UTC · latest results 2026-10-04 14:00 🏁 R10 Rainbow Road Grand Prix (18 Oct) ╭─────────────┬──────────┬───────┬────────────────┬────────┬────────────────┬────────┬───────┬─────────╮ │ driver │ team │ win │ │ podium │ │ top 10 │ DNF │ exp pts │ ├─────────────┼──────────┼───────┼────────────────┼────────┼────────────────┼────────┼───────┼─────────┤ │ Mario │ mushroom │ 26.4% │ ███▋ │ 58.7% │ ████████▏ │ 95.0% │ 3.1% │ 15.1 │ │ Luigi │ mushroom │ 18.8% │ ██▋ │ 49.8% │ ██████▉ │ 93.9% │ 3.1% │ 13.4 │ │ Bowser │ koopa │ 14.4% │ ██ │ 40.2% │ █████▋ │ 82.2% │ 13.9% │ 11.2 │ │ Peach │ royal │ 9.9% │ █▍ │ 33.1% │ ████▋ │ 86.7% │ 5.5% │ 10.2 │ │ Daisy │ royal │ 8.3% │ █▏ │ 29.6% │ ████▏ │ 84.4% │ 5.9% │ 9.5 │ │ Donkey Kong │ kong │ 8.1% │ █▏ │ 27.5% │ ███▊ │ 85.8% │ 3.5% │ 9.3 │ │ Bowser Jr. │ koopa │ 6.7% │ ▉ │ 23.6% │ ███▎ │ 75.2% │ 13.8% │ 8.1 │ │ Diddy Kong │ kong │ 2.8% │ ▍ │ 12.3% │ █▋ │ 73.0% │ 3.3% │ 5.8 │ │ Yoshi │ yoshi │ 1.6% │ ▏ │ 7.7% │ █ │ 60.0% │ 7.3% │ 4.2 │ │ Rosalina │ comet │ 1.2% │ ▏ │ 5.9% │ ▊ │ 55.7% │ 5.6% │ 3.6 │ ╰─────────────┴──────────┴───────┴────────────────┴────────┴────────────────┴────────┴───────┴─────────╯ 🏁 R11 Wario Stadium Grand Prix (01 Nov) ╭─────────────┬──────────┬───────┬────────────────┬────────┬────────────────┬────────┬───────┬─────────╮ │ driver │ team │ win │ │ podium │ │ top 10 │ DNF │ exp pts │ ├─────────────┼──────────┼───────┼────────────────┼────────┼────────────────┼────────┼───────┼─────────┤ │ Mario │ mushroom │ 24.4% │ ███▍ │ 59.4% │ ████████▎ │ 95.4% │ 3.0% │ 15.0 │ │ Luigi │ mushroom │ 20.7% │ ██▉ │ 53.0% │ ███████▍ │ 94.8% │ 3.0% │ 14.1 │ │ Peach │ royal │ 15.6% │ ██▏ │ 44.2% │ ██████▏ │ 90.8% │ 5.9% │ 12.4 │ │ Bowser │ koopa │ 12.9% │ █▊ │ 37.3% │ █████▏ │ 82.2% │ 14.0% │ 10.8 │ │ Daisy │ royal │ 12.1% │ █▋ │ 36.8% │ █████▏ │ 89.1% │ 5.7% │ 11.2 │ │ Bowser Jr. │ koopa │ 4.6% │ ▋ │ 19.1% │ ██▋ │ 75.1% │ 13.8% │ 7.3 │ │ Donkey Kong │ kong │ 4.2% │ ▌ │ 18.3% │ ██▌ │ 82.0% │ 3.1% │ 7.6 │ │ Yoshi │ yoshi │ 2.1% │ ▎ │ 11.0% │ █▌ │ 69.4% │ 7.4% │ 5.4 │ │ Diddy Kong │ kong │ 1.0% │ ▏ │ 6.1% │ ▊ │ 61.2% │ 3.6% │ 4.0 │ │ Birdo │ yoshi │ 0.9% │ ▏ │ 5.2% │ ▋ │ 56.3% │ 7.3% │ 3.6 │ ╰─────────────┴──────────┴───────┴────────────────┴────────┴────────────────┴────────┴───────┴─────────╯ 🏆 2026 drivers' championship ╭──────────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬────────────────┬────────╮ │ driver │ points │ expected │ champion │ │ top 3 │ ├──────────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼────────────────┼────────┤ │ Luigi │ 191 │ 234 │ 99.8% │ █████████████▉ │ 100.0% │ │ Mario │ 134 │ 182 │ 0.2% │ │ 99.1% │ │ Peach │ 106 │ 141 │ 0.0% │ │ 60.4% │ │ Bowser │ 99 │ 135 │ 0.0% │ │ 39.9% │ │ Daisy │ 62 │ 95 │ 0.0% │ │ 0.2% │ │ Donkey Kong │ 57 │ 85 │ 0.0% │ │ 0.2% │ │ Bowser Jr. │ 60 │ 85 │ 0.0% │ │ 0.1% │ │ Koopa Troopa │ 55 │ 58 │ 0.0% │ │ 0.0% │ │ Birdo │ 36 │ 48 │ 0.0% │ │ 0.0% │ │ Diddy Kong │ 28 │ 46 │ 0.0% │ │ 0.0% │ ╰──────────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴────────────────┴────────╯ constructors team points expected champion ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Mushroom Racing 325 416 100.0% ██████████████ Royal Racing 168 236 0.0% Koopa Kart Works 159 220 0.0% Kong Jungle Racing 85 132 0.0% Yoshi Island GP 62 91 0.0% finishing model coef {'g': 0.528, 'g_ease': -0.149, 'rp_rel': 0.041, 'rp_ease': 0.051, 'qp_rel': 0.08, 'street_g': 0.0} sigma 0.155; season drift (as-of) {'team_sd': 0.002652025069557153, 'driver_sd': 0.0005339299639313828} Saved forecast run 2.
5. 🏁 Run a live private book
Bowser's Castle (round 9) replayed on a simulated clock: the maker's book opens before practice, reprices after each session from the model's stage runs, 100 simulated takers trade against it, the book closes at lights out and settles from the results.
racinglines live run kart/demo-2026-09 --demo --simulate --no-fetchpre-weekend: priced (run #3) 2026-10-02T10:30:00+00:00 2026-09 pre-weekend: 80 markets, 54 quoted, 0 crowd fills, maker P&L +24.73 ╭─ 🚦 Bowser's Castle Grand Prix 2026 (synthetic) · pre-weekend (1 of 7 · 2026-10-02T10:30 UTC) ─╮ │ │ │ driver fair move bid ask Polymarket Kalshi inventory │ │ ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │ │ Mario 27.6% ███▎ 24.0% 31.0% 32.5% 36.0% -81 │ │ Luigi 21.4% ██▌ 18.0% 25.0% 11.1% 8.0% – │ │ Daisy 20.5% ██▍ 17.0% 24.0% 6.1% 5.7% – │ │ Peach 18.2% ██▏ 15.0% 22.0% 10.4% 11.2% – │ │ Bowser 3.6% ▍ 1.0% 8.0% 10.2% 10.5% -357 │ │ Bowser Jr. 2.1% ▎ – 6.0% 1.8% 2.1% – │ │ Yoshi 1.6% ▏ – 5.0% 1.6% 1.9% – │ │ Koopa Troopa 1.2% ▏ – 5.0% 7.2% 11.2% – │ │ │ │ 👥 crowd: 0 fills this update · 0 in all · $0 traded · 0 of 100 takers still betting │ │ 💰 maker P&L +24.73 (crowd +0.00, picks +24.73) │ │ next: after FP1 at 2026-10-02T13:00 UTC │ ╰────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯ after FP1: priced (run #4) 2026-10-02T13:00:00+00:00 2026-09 after FP1: 80 markets, 44 quoted, 4 crowd fills, maker P&L -75.09 ╭─ 🔄 Bowser's Castle Grand Prix 2026 (synthetic) · after FP1 (2 of 7 · 2026-10-02T13:00 UTC) ─────╮ │ │ │ driver fair move bid ask Polymarket Kalshi inventory │ │ ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │ │ Mario 29.1% ███▍ ▲ 1.5 26.0% 32.0% 32.5% 36.0% -66 │ │ Bowser 20.1% ██▍ ▲ 16.4 17.0% 23.0% 10.2% 10.5% -357 │ │ Luigi 19.3% ██▎ ▼ 2.1 16.0% 22.0% 11.1% 8.0% – │ │ Peach 16.0% █▉ ▼ 2.2 13.0% 19.0% 10.4% 11.2% – │ │ Daisy 11.1% █▎ ▼ 9.5 8.0% 14.0% 6.1% 5.7% – │ │ Koopa Troopa 1.9% ▏ ▲ 0.6 – 5.0% 7.2% 11.2% – │ │ Yoshi 0.7% ▼ 0.9 – 4.0% 1.6% 1.9% – │ │ King Boo 0.5% ▼ 0.6 – 4.0% 2.3% 1.8% – │ │ │ │ 👥 crowd: 4 fills this update · 4 in all · $294 traded · 4 of 100 takers still betting │ │ 💰 maker P&L -75.09 (crowd -51.91, picks -23.17) │ │ 🏁 fp1: P1 Mario · P2 Bowser · P3 Luigi │ │ next: after FP2 at 2026-10-02T16:30 UTC │ ╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯ after FP2: priced (run #5) 2026-10-02T16:30:00+00:00 2026-09 after FP2: 80 markets, 44 quoted, 11 crowd fills, maker P&L +140.40 ╭─ 🔄 Bowser's Castle Grand Prix 2026 (synthetic) · after FP2 (3 of 7 · 2026-10-02T16:30 UTC) ────╮ │ │ │ driver fair move bid ask Polymarket Kalshi inventory │ │ ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │ │ Mario 25.3% ███ ▼ 3.8 22.0% 28.0% 32.5% 36.0% -66 │ │ Peach 21.7% ██▌ ▲ 5.7 19.0% 25.0% 10.4% 11.2% – │ │ Luigi 19.0% ██▎ ▼ 0.3 16.0% 22.0% 11.1% 8.0% – │ │ Bowser 16.1% █▉ ▼ 4.0 13.0% 19.0% 10.2% 10.5% -357 │ │ Daisy 13.0% █▌ ▲ 2.0 10.0% 16.0% 6.1% 5.7% – │ │ Koopa Troopa 2.0% ▏ ▲ 0.1 – 5.0% 7.2% 11.2% – │ │ King Boo 1.1% ▏ ▲ 0.5 – 6.0% 2.3% 1.8% -2,102 │ │ Bowser Jr. 0.8% ▲ 0.3 – 4.0% 1.8% 2.1% – │ │ │ │ 👥 crowd: 11 fills this update · 15 in all · $680 traded · 14 of 100 takers still betting │ │ 💰 maker P&L +140.40 (crowd +146.60, picks -6.20) │ │ 🏁 fp2: P1 Mario · P2 Peach · P3 Luigi │ │ next: after FP3 at 2026-10-03T12:00 UTC │ ╰─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯ after FP3: priced (run #6) 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00 2026-09 after FP3: 80 markets, 44 quoted, 45 crowd fills, maker P&L +555.00 ╭─ 🔄 Bowser's Castle Grand Prix 2026 (synthetic) · after FP3 (4 of 7 · 2026-10-03T12:00 UTC) ────╮ │ │ │ driver fair move bid ask Polymarket Kalshi inventory │ │ ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │ │ Luigi 27.0% ███▏ ▲ 8.0 24.0% 29.0% 11.1% 8.0% -13 │ │ Mario 22.6% ██▋ ▼ 2.8 20.0% 25.0% 32.5% 36.0% -66 │ │ Peach 19.3% ██▎ ▼ 2.4 17.0% 22.0% 10.4% 11.2% -132 │ │ Bowser 14.7% █▊ ▼ 1.5 13.0% 18.0% 10.2% 10.5% -1,058 │ │ Daisy 12.0% █▍ ▼ 1.0 10.0% 15.0% 6.1% 5.7% -66 │ │ Koopa Troopa 1.8% ▏ ▼ 0.2 – 4.0% 7.2% 11.2% – │ │ King Boo 0.8% ▼ 0.2 – 5.0% 2.3% 1.8% -2,298 │ │ Bowser Jr. 0.8% = – 5.0% 1.8% 2.1% -1,920 │ │ │ │ 👥 crowd: 45 fills this update · 60 in all · $1,833 traded · 50 of 100 takers still betting │ │ 💰 maker P&L +555.00 (crowd +552.37, picks +2.63) │ │ 🏁 fp3: P1 Mario · P2 Luigi · P3 Peach │ │ next: after Quali at 2026-10-03T15:30 UTC │ ╰─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯ after Quali: priced (run #7) 2026-10-03T15:30:00+00:00 2026-09 after Quali: 80 markets, 27 quoted, 4 crowd fills, maker P&L +797.66 ╭─ 🔄 Bowser's Castle Grand Prix 2026 (synthetic) · after Quali (5 of 7 · 2026-10-03T15:30 UTC) ───╮ │ │ │ driver fair move bid ask Polymarket Kalshi inventory │ │ ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │ │ Luigi 31.4% ███▊ ▲ 4.5 29.0% 34.0% 11.1% 8.0% -13 │ │ Daisy 20.5% ██▍ ▲ 8.5 18.0% 23.0% 6.1% 5.7% -66 │ │ Mario 20.4% ██▍ ▼ 2.2 18.0% 23.0% 32.5% 36.0% -66 │ │ Bowser 20.0% ██▍ ▲ 5.3 18.0% 23.0% 10.2% 10.5% -1,058 │ │ Peach 6.5% ▊ ▼ 12.8 4.0% 9.0% 10.4% 11.2% -132 │ │ King Boo 0.5% ▼ 0.3 – – 2.3% 1.8% -2,338 │ │ Koopa Troopa 0.4% ▼ 1.4 – – 7.2% 11.2% – │ │ Donkey Kong 0.2% = – – 0.8% – – │ │ │ │ 👥 crowd: 4 fills this update · 64 in all · $1,944 traded · 52 of 100 takers still betting │ │ 💰 maker P&L +797.66 (crowd +802.57, picks -4.91) │ │ 🏁 qual: P1 Bowser · P2 Mario · P3 Luigi │ │ next: lights out at 2026-10-04T14:00 UTC │ ╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯ 2026-10-04T14:00:00+00:00 2026-09 lights out: 80 markets, 0 quoted, 112 crowd fills, maker P&L +1217.80 ╭─ 🔒 Bowser's Castle Grand Prix 2026 (synthetic) · lights out (6 of 7 · 2026-10-04T14:00 UTC) ─╮ │ │ │ driver fair move bid ask Polymarket Kalshi inventory │ │ ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │ │ Luigi 31.4% ███▊ ▲ 4.5 – – 11.1% 8.0% -13 │ │ Daisy 20.5% ██▍ ▲ 8.5 – – 6.1% 5.7% -66 │ │ Mario 20.4% ██▍ ▼ 2.2 – – 32.5% 36.0% -66 │ │ Bowser 20.0% ██▍ ▲ 5.3 – – 10.2% 10.5% -1,058 │ │ Peach 6.5% ▊ ▼ 12.8 – – 10.4% 11.2% -132 │ │ King Boo 0.5% ▼ 0.3 – – 2.3% 1.8% -2,338 │ │ Koopa Troopa 0.4% ▼ 1.4 – – 7.2% 11.2% – │ │ Donkey Kong 0.2% = – – 0.8% – – │ │ │ │ 👥 crowd: 112 fills this update · 176 in all · $6,048 traded · 52 of 100 takers still betting │ │ 💰 maker P&L +1,217.80 (crowd +1,222.72, picks -4.91) │ │ 🏁 qual: P1 Bowser · P2 Mario · P3 Luigi │ │ next: results at 2026-10-04T17:00 UTC │ ╰───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯ 2026-10-04T17:00:00+00:00 2026-09 results: 80 markets, 0 quoted, 0 crowd fills, maker P&L -222.25 ╭─ 🏁 Bowser's Castle Grand Prix 2026 (synthetic) · results (7 of 7 · 2026-10-04T17:00 UTC) ──────╮ │ │ │ driver fair move bid ask Polymarket Kalshi inventory │ │ ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │ │ Luigi ✅ 31.4% ███▊ ▲ 4.5 – – 11.1% 8.0% -13 │ │ Daisy ❌ 20.5% ██▍ ▲ 8.5 – – 6.1% 5.7% -66 │ │ Mario ❌ 20.4% ██▍ ▼ 2.2 – – 32.5% 36.0% -66 │ │ Bowser ❌ 20.0% ██▍ ▲ 5.3 – – 10.2% 10.5% -1,058 │ │ Peach ❌ 6.5% ▊ ▼ 12.8 – – 10.4% 11.2% -132 │ │ King Boo ❌ 0.5% ▼ 0.3 – – 2.3% 1.8% -2,338 │ │ Koopa Troopa ❌ 0.4% ▼ 1.4 – – 7.2% 11.2% – │ │ Donkey Kong ❌ 0.2% = – – 0.8% – – │ │ │ │ 👥 crowd: 0 fills this update · 176 in all · $6,048 traded · 52 of 100 takers still betting │ │ 💰 maker P&L -222.25 (crowd -72.25, picks -150.00) │ │ 🏁 race: P1 Luigi · P2 Daisy · P3 Donkey Kong │ ╰─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯ simulated 2026-09 to 2026-10-04 17:00:00: 7 updates ╭─ 🏁 Bowser's Castle Grand Prix 2026 (synthetic) ─────────────────────╮ │ opened 2026-10-02T10:30 UTC │ │ settled 2026-10-04T17:00 UTC │ │ 💰 maker P&L -222.25 │ │ from the crowd -72.25 │ │ from the picks -150.00 │ │ 👥 fills 176 ($6,048 traded) │ │ bettors 83: 31 up, 52 down, best +1,297.32, worst -184.03 │ ╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
Part 2: F1 Singapore: pre-race picks
1. Profile A's picks on Polymarket, into a book
Friday, after first practice: the core taker profile replays the weekend up to that moment against Polymarket's recorded order book, and every entry it would have taken is written to a book file, in dollars, at the price it was taken at. (Its Kalshi replay took no trades at that point, so Kalshi is left out.)
racinglines strategy signals f1 --profile A --event 2026-17 --venue polymarket --asof 2026-10-09T10:05Z --no-fetch --book singapore-polymarket.tomlA · core taker (update) · Singapore Grand Prix stages: pre-weekend #9780, after FP1 #9855 after FP1 buy NO 51.22 @ 0.720 fair 0.142 race_win Max Verstappen after FP1 buy NO 120.48 @ 0.415 fair 0.379 race_podium Kimi Antonelli after FP1 buy NO 129.87 @ 0.385 fair 0.383 race_podium Max Verstappen 3 signals, 3 positions wrote singapore-polymarket.toml: 3 picks
2. Price the Polymarket book
Each pick against the model's fair price and the exchange's last tape price at that moment: the edge it was taken on.
racinglines book price singapore-polymarket.toml --asof 2026-10-09T10:05Zbook price id selection odds book model market EV model EV market model method ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 1 Max Verstappen (NO) 1.39 72.0% 85.8% 69.5% +19.1% -3.5% single 2 Kimi Antonelli (NO) 2.41 41.5% 62.2% 40.5% +49.8% -2.4% single 3 Max Verstappen (NO) 2.60 38.5% 61.7% 38.0% +60.3% -1.3% single polymarket · event 2026-17 · f1 · captured 2026-10-09T10:05Z · odds dollars · USD ╭──────────────────────────────────────────────────── assumptions ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────╮ │ • EV is per unit staked: probability x decimal payout - 1; decimal payout = 1 / the book's implied probability. │ │ • Legs on different races are independent: the slip probability is the product of their probabilities. │ │ • Legs on the same race are priced jointly from simulations when they are available (passed in, or a stored combo │ │ run with exactly these legs); otherwise the product of the marginals, flagged 'correlated: EV approximate'. │ │ • The market's slip probability is the product of its legs' prices: no exchange lists the slip itself. │ │ • Model and market are shown side by side, never blended (owner, 2026-10-07). │ │ • The market price is the freshest linked exchange's mid (bid/ask midpoint, else its last price, else the tape's). │ │ • As of 2026-10-09T10:05Z: the model's newest run cut off by then, and each exchange's last tape price by then (no │ │ bid/ask). │ │ blend: none (owner, 2026-10-07; docs/sportsbook/slips.md) │ ╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
Part 3: F1 Singapore: through the sessions
1. After Sprint Qualifying: Polymarket
The Polymarket picks after Sprint Qualifying.
racinglines book price singapore-polymarket.toml --asof 2026-10-09T13:50Zbook price id selection odds book model market EV model EV market model method ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 1 Max Verstappen (NO) 1.39 72.0% 80.8% 57.5% +12.2% -20.1% single 2 Kimi Antonelli (NO) 2.41 41.5% 60.9% 43.5% +46.7% +4.8% single 3 Max Verstappen (NO) 2.60 38.5% 54.4% 36.5% +41.4% -5.2% single polymarket · event 2026-17 · f1 · captured 2026-10-09T10:05Z · odds dollars · USD ╭──────────────────────────────────────────────────── assumptions ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────╮ │ • EV is per unit staked: probability x decimal payout - 1; decimal payout = 1 / the book's implied probability. │ │ • Legs on different races are independent: the slip probability is the product of their probabilities. │ │ • Legs on the same race are priced jointly from simulations when they are available (passed in, or a stored combo │ │ run with exactly these legs); otherwise the product of the marginals, flagged 'correlated: EV approximate'. │ │ • The market's slip probability is the product of its legs' prices: no exchange lists the slip itself. │ │ • Model and market are shown side by side, never blended (owner, 2026-10-07). │ │ • The market price is the freshest linked exchange's mid (bid/ask midpoint, else its last price, else the tape's). │ │ • As of 2026-10-09T13:50Z: the model's newest run cut off by then, and each exchange's last tape price by then (no │ │ bid/ask). │ │ blend: none (owner, 2026-10-07; docs/sportsbook/slips.md) │ ╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
2. After the Sprint: Polymarket
The Polymarket picks after the Sprint.
racinglines book price singapore-polymarket.toml --asof 2026-10-10T10:20Zbook price id selection odds book model market EV model EV market model method ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 1 Max Verstappen (NO) 1.39 72.0% 80.8% 51.5% +12.2% -28.5% single 2 Kimi Antonelli (NO) 2.41 41.5% 60.9% 59.5% +46.7% +43.4% single 3 Max Verstappen (NO) 2.60 38.5% 54.4% 24.5% +41.4% -36.4% single polymarket · event 2026-17 · f1 · captured 2026-10-09T10:05Z · odds dollars · USD ╭──────────────────────────────────────────────────── assumptions ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────╮ │ • EV is per unit staked: probability x decimal payout - 1; decimal payout = 1 / the book's implied probability. │ │ • Legs on different races are independent: the slip probability is the product of their probabilities. │ │ • Legs on the same race are priced jointly from simulations when they are available (passed in, or a stored combo │ │ run with exactly these legs); otherwise the product of the marginals, flagged 'correlated: EV approximate'. │ │ • The market's slip probability is the product of its legs' prices: no exchange lists the slip itself. │ │ • Model and market are shown side by side, never blended (owner, 2026-10-07). │ │ • The market price is the freshest linked exchange's mid (bid/ask midpoint, else its last price, else the tape's). │ │ • As of 2026-10-10T10:20Z: the model's newest run cut off by then, and each exchange's last tape price by then (no │ │ bid/ask). │ │ blend: none (owner, 2026-10-07; docs/sportsbook/slips.md) │ ╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
3. After Qualifying: Polymarket
The Polymarket picks after Qualifying.
racinglines book price singapore-polymarket.toml --asof 2026-10-10T15:05Zbook price id selection odds book model market EV model EV market model method ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 1 Max Verstappen (NO) 1.39 72.0% 63.1% 35.5% -12.3% -50.7% single 2 Kimi Antonelli (NO) 2.41 41.5% 61.0% 59.5% +46.9% +43.4% single 3 Max Verstappen (NO) 2.60 38.5% 31.3% 21.0% -18.8% -45.5% single polymarket · event 2026-17 · f1 · captured 2026-10-09T10:05Z · odds dollars · USD ╭──────────────────────────────────────────────────── assumptions ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────╮ │ • EV is per unit staked: probability x decimal payout - 1; decimal payout = 1 / the book's implied probability. │ │ • Legs on different races are independent: the slip probability is the product of their probabilities. │ │ • Legs on the same race are priced jointly from simulations when they are available (passed in, or a stored combo │ │ run with exactly these legs); otherwise the product of the marginals, flagged 'correlated: EV approximate'. │ │ • The market's slip probability is the product of its legs' prices: no exchange lists the slip itself. │ │ • Model and market are shown side by side, never blended (owner, 2026-10-07). │ │ • The market price is the freshest linked exchange's mid (bid/ask midpoint, else its last price, else the tape's). │ │ • As of 2026-10-10T15:05Z: the model's newest run cut off by then, and each exchange's last tape price by then (no │ │ bid/ask). │ │ blend: none (owner, 2026-10-07; docs/sportsbook/slips.md) │ ╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
Recorded 2026-10-12, on a fresh demo store.
Sources: results: F1 live timing via FastF1 · prices: Polymarket · fair values: racinglines model