Cloud build-out¶
A long, unattended build session in a Claude Code cloud session, working through the Roadmap in priority order until nothing more can be done without a live event, the owner, or data the cloud machine can't reach. This page is the session's brief, protocol and progress log.
Launch (from a local terminal, with the branch pushed):
claude --cloud "Run the cloud build-out in docs/cloud-buildout.md. Follow its Agent protocol exactly."
Use the racinglines environment (Cloud sweeps):
Trusted network, BASH_MAX_TIMEOUT_MS=1800000. The session works on its own
claude/… branch, cut from live-event; it's merged back through live-event into
main after a local review.
Goal¶
- P0 first: the first live F1 test, round 16 (the Bahrain GP at Sepang, 2–4 Oct 2026), exactly as planned in F1 live test, code-complete and pushed by Wed 30 Sep 2026, 12:00 PDT (19:00 UTC). The owner merges it and rehearses locally on Thursday.
- One seamless way to launch a live simulation for any sport: F1 (session-end updates) and downhill (a timing feed polled every few seconds) today, more sports later. It's defined by schemas, not code, wherever possible.
- Then every other open item on the Roadmap, in priority order, as far as the cloud machine allows.
Context. Polymarket has listed no F1 race markets since 28 Aug 2026 (the venue change; see the business context in F1 live test), and no venue lists downhill markets. So every live event for now is a mock private book: the demo maker quotes, 1,000 simulated takers and the demo taker trade, play money. The code must still take Polymarket (or another venue) prices the moment they exist.
Design: schemas first¶
The multi-sport design
is the plan: one shared live core, one adapter per sport. The owner's requirement is that
everything that can be data is data. Sports already differ as data
(sports/<code>.toml, read through racinglines/sports.py); extend that.
A [live] section per sport (sports/<code>.toml)¶
What a sport's live simulation is:
| Key (suggested) | Downhill (mtb_dh) |
F1 (f1) |
|---|---|---|
sources.historical |
ChronoRace results (kind, URL template) | FastF1 archive |
sources.live |
ChronoRace live JSON (prod.chronorace.be/api/results/generic/uci/{slug}/dh?key={key}) |
The model's stage runs (FastF1 archive, per session) |
poll.mode |
interval |
session_end |
poll.interval_s, poll.late_interval_s, poll.late_when_left |
5, 2, 3 (as at Whistler) | – |
poll.lag_min |
– | 30 (session end + data lag; as weekend_sweep.DATA_LAG) |
markets.kinds |
race_win, race_podium |
race_win, race_podium, race_pole, race_h2h, race_constructor_top |
quoting |
half-spread 3¢, +2¢ on course, +1¢ next to start, max_pos 2,500, skew 1.0 |
half-spread by stage (3 / 2.5 / 2¢), max_pos 2,500, skew 1.0 |
crowd |
1,000 takers, $10–200 budgets, per-poll rate, late window 50×, $100 caps | the same crowd; one batch per update, per-hour rate; pre-race window |
freeze / close |
pull a market after a rider's last split; close when the final is over | no freeze (books never freeze, 2026-10-04); close at lights out |
Today's values live as constants in pipelines/live_dh.py. Move them into the schema, with
the constants reading from it, exactly as sports.py did for the models.
A launch spec per event (committed config, not data)¶
Suggested: live/<sport>/<event>.toml. It holds:
- the sport, the event key, and the feed arguments (downhill: slug, final key, qualifying keys, conditions; F1: event key);
- the time window, and any overrides of the sport's [live] values;
- the market-set source (for F1's head-to-heads: the last listing Polymarket published).
One CLI for every sport¶
Suggested; keep the names consistent with the existing CLI:
| Command | What it does |
|---|---|
racinglines live new <sport> <event> |
Write a launch spec from the schedule, with the sport's defaults |
racinglines live step <spec> |
One idempotent update (F1: act only if a stage run or a close/settle time is new; downhill: one poll) |
racinglines live run <spec> |
Loop step at the sport's cadence until the event is settled |
racinglines live agent <spec> [--install/--remove] |
Write (and load) a macOS LaunchAgent for the spec: a lock, restart, logs |
racinglines live status |
Every event: live / replay / settled, last update, lateness |
racinglines live report <spec> |
The event report (Markdown + charts + PDF), generalised from the Whistler report |
racinglines strategy live mtb_dh … keeps working (delegating to the new path), and the Whistler
run folder keeps rendering and replaying exactly as it does today.
Adding a sport should mean: a [live] section, a launch spec, an adapter module
implementing the four-function interface (markets, step, outcomes, view), and a
page body partial. Prove it with a synthetic third sport in the tests (a toy adapter
and schema), and document the steps in Live events.
Tracks: one session or two in parallel¶
The owner has credits to use, so the queue splits into two tracks that don't touch the same files. Launch one session per track, or one session for both (it works Track A first).
| Track | Items | Owns |
|---|---|---|
| A: live platform (critical path) | Queue items 1–3: P0, the unified launcher, P1 | pipelines/live*.py, markets/crowd.py, markets/quoting.py, markets/private_book.py, sports/*.toml [live], live/, the Live tab templates, racinglines live CLI |
| B: everything else | Queue item 4, except anything in Track A's files | Models (models/), downhill data and parsers (sources/), exchanges (markets/polymarket/trade.py, a new markets/kalshi/), web pages other than the Live tab, tests for those |
Launch commands (one session each):
claude --cloud "Run the cloud build-out in docs/cloud-buildout.md, Track A only. Follow its Agent protocol exactly."
claude --cloud "Run the cloud build-out in docs/cloud-buildout.md, Track B only. Follow its Agent protocol exactly."
In two sessions:
- each keeps its own lines in the progress log, prefixed A: or B:;
- Track B doesn't edit Track A's files; if it needs a change there, it adds a Roadmap item;
- shared docs (the Roadmap, the README) get small, separate edits;
- merges happen locally, A first.
Work queue, in order¶
Work top to bottom. An item that can't be finished in the cloud gets its code and synthetic tests done, then goes on the blocked list in the log with what's missing.
1. P0: the F1 live test. Build items B0–B8 in F1 live test,
as the shared core + adapter + schemas above:
- the name aliases;
- the shared core (markets/crowd.py, markets/quoting.py, pipelines/live.py with the registry);
- the F1 adapter with the 100-market set, priced from stage runs;
- the Live tab's shell with a downhill body and an F1 body;
- the demo taker's hype picks;
- operations (LaunchAgent, lock, lateness alert, frozen settings);
- a rehearsal on Baku (2026-15) on a simulated clock.
Defaults for the plan's open questions: no informed takers, hype picks only, the usual five kinds (no top-10), no live feed.
2. The unified launcher. The [live] schemas, launch specs and the racinglines live
CLI above:
- a launch spec for round 16 (F1) and one for the next downhill event, if one is known in the data;
- the synthetic third sport.
3. P1 on the Roadmap:
- the report command;
- a per-market loss cap or two-sided long-shot quotes in quoting.py;
- Singapore (round 17, a sprint weekend: add the sprint stages to the F1 adapter);
- settling the Whistler book in the database (code and a migration; the owner runs it locally);
- re-pricing an event from its logged raw feed.
4. P2–P4, and every other open item on the Roadmap, in its priority order. Also: a Google Cloud architecture proposal (a docs page; the owner plans to move there): - the database on Cloud SQL, and the web app on Cloud Run; - the pollers and signal engine on Cloud Scheduler with Cloud Run jobs; - the bucket as the data layer, service identities (no keys), and a cost estimate. Notes for items with limits in the cloud:
| Item | In the cloud |
|---|---|
| CLOB V2 order signing | Implement with py-clob-client-v2 and dry-run tests; never set POLYMARKET_TRADING_ENABLED or send an order |
| Kalshi connector (F1-9) | Build against Kalshi's documented API with mocked responses; mark it unverified against the live API |
Promote gridq+pretrain |
Owner's decision: don't. Prepare the change (sweep + UPDATE_GOLDEN) on a separate commit only if asked |
| Sizing, walk-forward, bankroll-aware sizing | Code and synthetic tests; decisions need live weekends |
| Book-depth replay / queue model | Build the model and tests on synthetic books; recorded books are local-only |
| F1 props (safety car, red flag, rain, fastest lap) | Price them from the committed FastF1 track-status and weather data, as optional private-book market kinds in the schema |
| Downhill points validation | The official UCI scales can't be fetched here: build the points_schemes loading, the reconciliation harness and the pinning test, with placeholders marked; the owner enters the official numbers |
| Downhill data (UCI rider IDs, start order, weather, Women's categories, slug probing, other input formats) | Code paths and parser tests on synthetic inputs; re-downloads run locally |
| Downhill model (calibration, 43-round tuning, rider × venue, trends) | Only if the downhill results are in the snapshot; otherwise code and tests |
Web: admin P&L filter, a public JSON API, a setting that hides the demo_context bubbles |
Do them; keep the bubbles on by default (the demo needs them) |
Rules¶
- The F1 roadmap's ground rules apply:
- the baseline stays the default; every new behaviour sits behind a switch that defaults to today's;
- golden files pass untouched;
- no renames or moves visible from outside (moved functions are imported back under their old names);
- no refactors that aren't needed.
- Downhill must not change. Whistler's book re-derived from its fills, its replay pages and the downhill tests must match today. The run folder isn't in git, so write that regression test to skip when the folder is missing, and add it to the local checks in the log.
- Database changes are additive Alembic migrations (
migrations/versions/), never destructive. - The data bucket (Data) holds what git doesn't:
- a full dump of the owner's database (model runs, signals, positions, books);
- the Whistler run folder and every live run after it;
- the F1 run outputs, the downhill downloads, and the Polymarket archive.
start.sh pulls it when the environment has the key. Use it: Whistler's regression
check can then run in the cloud too. Send reports and run folders back with
python scripts/cloud/bucket.py push results/<session> <path>, never through git.
If the key isn't set, note that in the log and carry on with the committed snapshot.
- No data in git beyond the allow-listed set: run tests/test_no_data_in_git.py before
every push. Configs (schemas, launch specs) are fine; run outputs aren't.
- No real trading, no secrets, no fabricated numbers. Results measured on synthetic
data say so. Anything not verified against a live service says so.
- Docs are the source of truth. Update the page that documents each feature, in the house
style (short sentences, tables). Then run python scripts/build_readme.py and
python -m mkdocs build --strict. The pre-push hook doesn't run in the cloud, so run it by hand.
- Roadmap bookkeeping:
- tick items on the Roadmap and in F1 live test when done;
- add new items you discover;
- add a decision-log line for every design decision (in F1 live test or the F1 roadmap).
Agent protocol¶
- Bring up the machine:
bash scripts/cloud/start.sh(Python 3.14 venv, Postgres, the database: the bucket's full dump if the key is set, else the committed snapshot). - Without the bucket, the snapshot has no
model_runs: compute any stage runs you need (e.g. Baku's) offline fromdata/raw/f1(--no-fetch). - Try
python scripts/fetch_test_fixtures.pyonce. If the network blocks it, note that in the log, and usepython -m pytest -m quickplus your new tests; the full suite runs locally. - Read this page, the Roadmap, F1 live test,
Live events, and the code named in them (
pipelines/live_dh.py,pipelines/signals.py,markets/private_book.py,sports.py,web/views.pylive_page). - Work the queue in order. For each item:
- make the change, with tests;
- run the tests and the docs checks;
- commit with a message that names the item;
- push to your branch after every item (never to
main, never force-push); - add a line to the log.
- P0 checkpoint: when B0–B7 are done and the Baku rehearsal passes (or by Wed 30 Sep 12:00 PDT, whichever is first), write a P0 handoff entry in the log. It says what's done, what's missing, and the exact local steps to merge and rehearse. Push it. Then carry on with the queue.
- Keep going until every remaining item is blocked (a live event, the owner, local-only data or services). Then write the final handoff:
- what was done, with the commits;
- the blocked list: each item, what it needs, and who;
- the local checks the owner must run after merging (below).
Push, and stop. 6. If the owner sends a message, their instructions override this page.
Local checks after merging (the session copies this list into its handoff, adding to it):
- The full regression suite (
python -m pytest -m "not live") on the local fixtures. - Whistler: its book re-derived from
crowd.jsonl,/liveand replay unchanged. - Migrations applied to the local database (
alembic upgrade head). racinglines live agent <round-16 spec> --install, then a dry run of onestep.- The pre-push hook passes.
Handoffs¶
A: P0 handoff (29 Sep 2026, ahead of the Wed 30 Sep 19:00 UTC deadline)¶
Done (branch claude/cloud-buildout-track-a, from live-event): B0–B8 of F1 live test,
built as the shared core + adapters + schemas.
| What | Where | |
|---|---|---|
| B0 | "Malaysian", "Sepang", "Kuala Lumpur", "Bahrain … in Malaysia" → 2026-16 |
markets/polymarket/sync.py |
| B1 | The live core: book and crowd, quotes, run folder / replay / state, the event registry; [live] in both schemas. Downhill unchanged: its digest is pinned, and Whistler's book and pages are re-derived |
markets/crowd.py, markets/quoting.py, pipelines/live.py, sports/*.toml |
| B2–B3 | The F1 adapter: 99 markets from the stage runs, the weekend as one idempotent step | pipelines/live_f1.py |
| B4 | The Live tab: the shell over live_mtb_dh.html / live_f1.html; /live?event= |
web/views.py, templates |
| B5 | Hype picks from the launch spec | live/f1/2026-16.toml [[picks]] |
| B6 | racinglines live agent (LaunchAgent per event, 5 min, lock, log), lateness alert, frozen settings and pairs |
cli/live.py |
| B7 | Baku on a simulated clock, 669 step processes: 7 updates, Positions = book, reconciles, replay | live/f1/2026-15.toml |
| B8 | racinglines live report |
pipelines/live_report.py |
Not verified in the cloud (no macOS, and the proxy blocks FastF1 / Polymarket / ChronoRace):
- the LaunchAgent itself;
- a step that fetches FastF1 data (_refresh reuses the signal engine's fetch + ingest);
- the full regression suite on the fixtures.
Decisions for the owner:
- the loss cap (max_loss, off: measured in the decision log);
- the hype picks in live/f1/2026-16.toml (edit before the book opens);
- the crowd pace (0.0006 an hour, chosen a priori);
- 99 markets, not 100 (Baku's Tsunoda pair).
Local steps to merge and rehearse (Thursday):
git fetch origin && git checkout live-event && git merge origin/claude/cloud-buildout-track-a
source .venv/bin/activate && pip install -r requirements.txt -e . # no new dependencies
alembic upgrade head # live_events (additive)
python -m pytest -m "not live" # the full suite on the local fixtures
python -m pytest tests/test_live_core.py tests/test_live_f1.py # Whistler's book + 6 replay pages; Baku through the engine
racinglines live settle live/mtb_dh/20260925_mtb.toml # Whistler into live_events
# rehearsal: Baku on a simulated clock, without touching Positions, then look at it
racinglines live run live/f1/2026-15.toml --simulate --no-fetch --no-sync
racinglines web # /live?event=2026-15-rehearsal (maker and taker), step through the replay; /live?event=20260925_mtb_3 unchanged
rm -rf data/runs/live/2026-15-rehearsal # so /live defaults to round 16 again
# round 16
racinglines live step live/f1/2026-16.toml --no-sync # dry run: "nothing new · next: pre-weekend (due 2026-10-02 03:30 UTC)"
racinglines live agent live/f1/2026-16.toml --install # before Thu 20:30 PDT; steps every 5 min
tail -f data/runs/live/2026-16/agent.log # the book opens at 03:30 UTC (20:30 PDT)
racinglines live status # any time: last / next update, lateness
After the race: racinglines live report live/f1/2026-16.toml --pdf, racinglines live settle live/f1/2026-16.toml,
then racinglines live agent live/f1/2026-16.toml --remove.
A: final handoff (29 Sep 2026)¶
Track A is complete: queue items 1–3 (P0, the unified launcher, P1). Everything else belongs to Track B or is blocked below.
Done, with commits (branch claude/cloud-buildout-track-a):
| Item | Commit |
|---|---|
| Bring-up fixes: boto3 through uv, a current uv (Python 3.14.7, not rc2), bucket uploads without boto3's checksums | 9010faf, a7c8c8d, 4e0f64b |
| B0 name aliases | a7c8c8d |
B1 the shared live core, [live] schemas, the Live tab's shell |
cdd9a37 |
B2–B3 the F1 adapter and engine step; racinglines live |
767f103 |
| B4–B5 the Live tab's F1 body; hype picks | 79715dd |
| B6 operations; the round-16 spec | 84b86d0 |
Item 2: launch specs (Whistler, Baku), the synthetic third sport, /live?event= quoted |
5fe0583 |
| B8 / P1 report command | e106061 |
P1 Whistler into the database (live_events, migration a3f5c8d1e7b2, live settle) |
a85630b |
P1 re-price from the raw feed (live reprice) |
66a125e |
| P1 Singapore (sprint): spec, Dutch GP rehearsal | fc1fe47 |
| B7 Baku rehearsal (669 step processes); P1 loss cap and floor bid (off) | 8cb7401 |
| Runs found through the registry; F1's book opens at its pre-weekend update | 726f16e |
Blocked: what each item needs, and who:
| Item | Needs | Who |
|---|---|---|
The LaunchAgent itself (live agent --install) and a step fetching FastF1 live |
macOS; FastF1 access (blocked by this session's proxy) | Owner, Thursday |
| The full regression suite on the fixtures | fetch_test_fixtures.py: FastF1, Polymarket, ChronoRace (blocked here) |
Owner, locally |
Whistler's final results in the database (the event is in_progress) |
The downhill download + ingest of 20260925_mtb (ChronoRace) |
Owner, locally |
Loss cap for round 16 (max_loss), the hype picks, the crowd pace |
Decisions (measurements in the decision log) | Owner, before Thu 20:30 PDT |
| Checkpoints 1–2 (a Polymarket listing?) | Wed evening / Thu 18:00 PDT | Owner |
| The round-16 weekend, its report and settlement; running Singapore | The live event (2–4 Oct), then the owner's call | Owner, LaunchAgent |
| A launch spec for the next downhill event | An event after Whistler (none in the data: it was the final) | Next season |
| Informed takers, A's calls for the demo taker, a live feed (SignalR / OpenF1) | Owner decisions (defaults: none) | Owner |
Local checks after merging (the brief's list, with additions):
- The full regression suite (
python -m pytest -m "not live") on the local fixtures. - Whistler:
python -m pytest tests/test_live_core.py: its book re-derived fromcrowd.jsonl, and six replay pages hashed. Also look at/live?event=20260925_mtb_3, with replay and Positions. - Migrations applied to the local database (
alembic upgrade head: addslive_events), thenracinglines live settle live/mtb_dh/20260925_mtb.toml. racinglines live agent live/f1/2026-16.toml --install, then a dry run of onestep(racinglines live step live/f1/2026-16.toml --no-sync).- The Baku rehearsal locally:
racinglines live run live/f1/2026-15.toml --simulate --no-fetch --no-sync, then look at/live?event=2026-15-rehearsalas maker and taker. Afterwardsrm -rf data/runs/live/2026-15-rehearsal:/liveshows the newest event. - The pre-push hook passes.
Progress log¶
The session appends here: date and time (UTC), item, commit, status, notes.
| When (UTC) | Item | Commit | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Brief written | – | – | Ready to launch |
| 2026-09-29 02:45 | A: bring-up | 9010faf | done | Bucket key set: pulled the full database dump and the Whistler run folder. bucket.py now installs boto3 with uv (the venv has no pip); start.sh upgrades uv so the venv gets Python 3.14.7, not 3.14.0rc2 (pydantic fails under pytest on rc2). |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 | A: fixtures | – | blocked | fetch_test_fixtures.py: the proxy refuses FastF1, Polymarket and ChronoRace (403). Using -m quick plus new tests; the full suite runs locally. |
| 2026-09-29 03:05 | A: B0 name aliases | B0 | done | GP_ALIASES: Malaysian, Sepang, Kuala Lumpur, "Bahrain … in Malaysia" → 2026-16. |
| 2026-09-28 02:56 | A: B1 shared live core | cdd9a37 | done | crowd / quoting / live core + registry; [live] in both schemas; Live tab shell + live_mtb_dh.html. Whistler: book re-derived, all 82 replay + Positions pages byte-identical, downhill digest pinned. |
| 2026-09-28 03:04 | A: B2 F1 markets | 767f103 | done | 99 markets from the stored stage runs; sums exact at every Baku stage. Baku's Lindblad–Tsunoda pair dropped (Tsunoda not in the field). Sepang: unknown venue, neutral track features. |
| 2026-09-28 03:04 | A: B3 F1 engine step | 767f103 | done | live_f1.step + racinglines live CLI; Baku on a simulated clock: 7 updates, pole after Quali, the rest at results, book reconciles, positions sum to maker P&L. |
| 2026-09-28 03:09 | A: B4 Live tab F1 body | 79715dd | done | Stages, latest classification, all markets by kind with moves, the book, picks; maker vs taker; replay at a fixed pace. Whistler's 82 pages byte-identical. |
| 2026-09-28 03:09 | A: B5 demo taker | 79715dd | done | Hype picks from the spec at the opening, at the maker's ask. A's calls not built (default). |
| 2026-09-28 03:11 | A: B6 operations | 84b86d0 | done | live agent (plist per event, 5-min StartInterval), lock, lateness alert once per update, frozen settings + pairs, live/f1/2026-16.toml. Round 16's opening dry-run: 99 markets, 90 quoted, 12 picks. |
| 2026-09-28 03:15 | A: B8 report command | e106061 | done | live report for any sport; Whistler's report rebuilt from its run folder (folder unchanged); PDF via headless Chrome. |
| 2026-09-28 03:18 | A: P1 settle Whistler in the DB | a85630b | done (owner runs locally) | live_events table + migration a3f5c8d1e7b2, racinglines live settle; story dates private events from it. Whistler recorded in the cloud DB: +$11,349.25, 7,703 fills. The final's results still need the local downhill download + ingest. |
| 2026-09-28 03:19 | A: P1 re-price from raw feed | 66a125e | done | live reprice (downhill); 38 sampled Whistler updates: re-price Brier 0.0216 / 0.0430 (win / podium) vs live 0.0202 / 0.0365. |
| 2026-09-28 03:21 | A: P1 Singapore (sprint) | fc1fe47 | done (runs if the owner decides) | live/f1/2026-17.toml; the Dutch GP (2026-12) sprint rehearsal: 7 updates incl. SQ and Sprint, 100 markets, settles. Classifications without positions ranked by best lap. |
| 2026-09-28 03:24 | A: B7 Baku rehearsal | 8cb7401 | done (cloud part) | 669 separate live step --now processes: 7 updates on time, positions = book (+$8,313.81 maker / −$50 taker), book reconciles (2,596 fills), replay renders. Same result as run --simulate. The real LaunchAgent + a live FastF1 step are the owner's Thursday rehearsal. |
| 2026-09-28 03:24 | A: P1 loss cap / long-shot bid | 8cb7401 | done (off by default) | max_loss in quotes and crowd fills, floor_bid. Baku: baseline +$6,935 (worst −$2,400/market); cap 500: +$5,337 (worst −$559). Owner decides. |
| 2026-09-28 03:28 | A: P0 handoff | 4e0f64b | done | See Handoffs. Rehearsal run folders + Whistler report pushed to results/cloud-buildout-a-20260929/ in the bucket (bucket.py push needed a checksum fix). Full suite here: 237 passed, 30 skipped (fixtures). |
| 2026-09-28 03:30 | A: final handoff | – | done | Track A complete (queue items 1–3). See Handoffs. |
| 2026-09-28 02:50 | B: bring-up | see git log | done | start.sh pulled the bucket (full DB dump, Whistler folder, downhill raw). Fixed: the image's Python 3.14.0rc2 breaks pydantic (now a stable 3.14), boto3 via uv, GCS upload checksums. Fixtures blocked: prod.chronorace.be is denied by the network policy (F1 part not reached); tests run with TEST_DATABASE_URL on port 5432. No git remote in this session: commits are backed up to the bucket as a bundle, results/cloud-buildout-track-b/track-b.bundle |
| 2026-09-28 02:47 | B: CLOB V2 order signing (P2) | a7aebcb | done (dry-run only) | trade.py on py-clob-client-v2==1.2.0; dry runs sign locally, tests recover the signer with the network blocked. No order sent, POLYMARKET_TRADING_ENABLED never set. Unverified against the live CLOB: the owner's first small order is a new Roadmap item |
| 2026-09-28 02:54 | B: bankroll-aware sizing (P2) | 956cbb6 | done (backtest only) | Docs were in the same commit after all: cli.md sweep table, paper-trading.md, Roadmap tick, decision log (checked 2026-09-28 03:00, caa1a2f). |
| 2026-09-28 02:57 | B: handover to one Track B session | fed2b52 | done | Two Track B sessions ran by mistake; the first one closed. Its bundle's commits are replayed onto claude/cloud-buildout-track-b (hashes changed; the bundle in the bucket is superseded). Its own uv/boto3 fix (54b0a8e) was dropped in favour of Track A's identical-in-effect one (3630be3, 41f3f05), so A and B merge cleanly. This session has the GitHub remote: pushes go to the branch from here on. Quick suite, the new tests, test_no_data_in_git, README and mkdocs build --strict pass. Tests need TEST_DATABASE_URL=…:5432/racinglines_test: the test_engine fixture drops and re-creates the database it names, so never point it at racinglines |
| 2026-09-28 03:04 | B: Monte Carlo seed setting (P3, F1 model) | 680a049 | done | seed model setting (sweep flag, search, profiles); unset = 42, so model keys 56f55ac79102 (default) and profile A's are unchanged and pinned. Quick suite, test_views, test_signals pass. Golden tests need the fixtures (blocked here): local check |
| 2026-09-28 03:06 | B: h2h-only sweep crash (P3) | e29e18a | done | Cause: a weekend with no market of the chosen kinds (2025 lists no h2h before round 8) left the maker replay's positions table without columns. Reproduced on the bucket's database (2025 rounds 1-3) and fixed; rounds 8-9 h2h-only run end to end. Regression test in test_replay.py |
| 2026-09-28 03:09 | B: stage-aware taker out of sample, 2025 (P3) | 3c78aa8 | done (2025); live weekends blocked | Default sweep on 2025, baseline model: stage-aware -$315.77 on $7,914, 9/23 up (2026 in-sample +$1,874.01). After-quali trades were 2025's best stage (+$669). Docs: market-making.md table. Log in the bucket: results/cloud-buildout-track-b/sweep-2025-default/ |
| 2026-09-28 03:11 | B: Google Cloud proposal (P4) | f1707c3 | done (proposal) | docs/google-cloud.md: Cloud SQL, Cloud Run service + jobs, Scheduler, bucket as data root, service identities, a cost estimate from list prices read 2026-09-28 (about $28-35/month; usage figures are estimates). Owner decides tier, recorder shape, domain |
| 2026-09-28 03:16 | B: driver layer in a new season (P3, F1-2) | da60e09 | done (variant, not promoted) | Variant rookie (ROOKIE_CARRY=0.25). Backtests 1288 (vs 931) and 1289 (vs 955), 129 races: win odds better before practice/quali beyond 2 SE; teammate h2h better 2026 pre-quali, worse 2021 after quali. Not promoted; profile A decision after live weekends. Runs 1288/1289 are in this session's database only: exported to the bucket, results/cloud-buildout-track-b/f1-backtests/. Parametrized variant tests need fixtures: local check |
| 2026-09-28 03:20 | B: downhill points validation (P3) | this commit | code + tests; blocked on the official UCI scales and standings (owner) | points.py (schemes from points_schemes, points.use, reconcile), mtb_dh points import/show/check, --points db on forecast/backtest (default schema: unchanged). Entry template sports/points/uci_dhi_wc.toml, all placeholder. check ran on the real 2026 results through round 7 against a self-made file (189/190 match, the one edited flagged). Pinning test skips until sports/points/standings/*.toml exists |
| 2026-09-28 03:24 | B: downhill UCI rider IDs (P3 data) | this commit | code + tests; re-download and merges local (owner) | Downloader writes a UCI ID column (unverified against the live API), parser reads it (old files unchanged), ingest matches uci identifiers first and reports shared UCI IDs. db merge-athletes dry-run on the bucket DB: 491 into 152 would move 11 results, 1 identifier. Also verified: mtb_dh forecast/backtest outputs byte-identical before/after the points change |
| 2026-09-28 03:25 | B: final handoff (owner asked to stop and hand off) | this commit | handoff | See Track B handoff below |
| 2026-09-28 03:34 | B: book-depth queue model on synthetic books (P3, F1-4) | this commit | done (synthetic); recorded books needed | Taken over from the handoff in a project thread. fill="queue" in the maker replay (sweep --fill queue, off by default): join the back of the level shown in the latest book snapshot, trades at our price serve the queue first, sweeps fill, same-price requotes keep their place, cancellations shrink the queue; no snapshot within 10 min falls back to through. load_event(books=True) reads market_book_snapshots (unexercised: no recorded books here). Synthetic: touch >= queue >= through. Quick suite 70 passed; test_views/test_signals have 11 failures (401 Not authenticated) with or without this change, on the committed snapshot without the bucket |
| 2026-09-28 04:11 | B: downhill calibration check (P3, Model) | 5a550f1 | done; prior_n 0.5 waits for the owner |
Owner: downhill data items are a hi-pri todo for the next cloud session (ChronoRace blocked here); calibration taken instead. mtb_dh backtest --reliability over all 43 rounds (committed snapshot, 5,171 rider-rounds): win/podium close, top 10 and make-Final too flat. --prior-n 0.5: make-Final log loss −0.026 ± 0.005, better in all 6 seasons, win/podium even; picked in-sample from a small grid. Lower INCIDENT_THRESHOLD and Student-t noise (--eps-df, EPS_DF) tried, no better. Defaults unchanged: mtb_dh forecast/backtest outputs byte-identical before/after. Quick suite 75 passed |
| 2026-09-28 04:14 | B: downhill tuning sweep, 43 rounds (P3, Model) | this commit | done (docs); new defaults wait for the owner | 24 combinations of prior_n × half-life × junior weight, walk-forward on the committed snapshot. Best: prior_n 0.5, half-life 240, junior 0.25: make-Final −0.035 ± 0.006, podium −0.003 ± 0.002, top 10 −0.006 ± 0.006, win −0.001 ± 0.001 (log loss). In-sample; no code change (existing flags) |
| 2026-09-28 04:19 | B: downhill practice weight and rider × venue effects (P3, Model) | this commit | done (docs): neither helps | Practice weight 0/0.25/0.5/1.0 within 0.003 log loss on every market, 0.5 kept. Venue prior (k = 1, 2, 4, deviations from the rider's own level, residuals beyond ±4% dropped): no better on podium/top 10/final, Spearman lower. Experiment scripts only; no model code |
| 2026-09-28 04:21 | B: downhill time trends (P3, Model) | this commit | done (docs): none detected | Rookie drift (riders with ≤3 or ≤6 elite events, 0.3%/0.6% faster) worse on every market; 0.3% slower within 0.001. Experiment only |
| 2026-09-28 04:23 | B: admin P&L without the replay counterparty (Engineering) | this commit | done | /admin totals count people's bets only; polymarket-takers replay fills get their own line when there are any (admin.bet_totals, unit test). Checked /admin renders (local demo logins created in this session's database only). Kalshi connector skipped: F1-9 starts only after the owner confirms it, and the cloud network blocks Kalshi's API. Public JSON API left: its scope (what's public, auth, data terms) is the owner's call |
| 2026-09-28 04:26 | B: new downhill defaults (owner's OK) and Final incident rates (P3, Model) | 288aacb | done | Owner: make the sweep's winner the downhill default, leave F1 alone. PRIOR_N 0.5, HALF_LIFE_DAYS 240, CATEGORY_WEIGHTS['MJ'] 0.25 (model, CLI, web Lab knobs). mtb_dh backtest --db --reliability now: make-Final log loss 0.361 (was 0.397), podium 0.0735 (0.0768), top 10 0.171 (0.177), win 0.0324 (0.0332). Every downhill price changes; the downhill golden tests (tests/test_pipeline_mtb.py, fixtures local only) need regenerating locally. Lower incident rate in Finals (×0.5/0.71/0.85) tried: slightly worse, not built. No F1 code touched |
| 2026-09-28 04:33 | B: final handoff from the project thread (owner asked to stop) | this commit | handoff | Track B handoff rewritten: done list with the thread's commits, the downhill defaults change, blocked and not-started items, updated local checks |
Track B handoff¶
Branch claude/cloud-buildout-track-b, cut from live-event; merge after Track A. It touches none of
Track A's files except scripts/cloud/bucket.py and start.sh, which carry Track A's identical fixes.
Updated 2026-09-28 04:40 UTC, when the owner stopped the project thread that took Track B over
from the CLI session at 03:26 (head 53dd306 before this update).
Done. Every new behaviour is off by default except the new downhill defaults (prior_n 0.5,
half-life 240 days, junior weight 0.25, the owner's OK), which change every downhill price. F1
defaults are untouched.
| Item | Commits | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cloud bring-up fixes | 3630be3, 41f3f05, 6a62c89 | Track A's uv/boto3 fix; GCS upload checksums |
| CLOB V2 order signing (P2) | a7aebcb | dry-run only, no order sent; unverified against the live CLOB |
| Bankroll-aware sizing, deployed-capital cap (P2) | 956cbb6 | sweep settings bankroll, max_deployed |
| Monte Carlo seed setting (P3) | 680a049 | seed; unset keeps every model key |
| h2h-only sweep crash (P3) | e29e18a | reproduced and fixed on the bucket's database |
| Stage-aware taker out of sample (P3) | 3c78aa8 | not confirmed: −$316 on 2025 (+$1,874 in-sample on 2026) |
| Google Cloud proposal (P4) | f1707c3 | Google Cloud proposal, about $28–35/month at list prices |
Driver layer, rookie variant (P3, F1-2) |
da60e09, 6b724de | small gain on win odds; not promoted |
| Downhill points validation (P3) | e062360 | points_schemes by era, mtb_dh points, pinning test |
| Downhill UCI rider IDs (P3) | b088e5b | ingest by UCI ID first; db merge-athletes |
| Book-depth queue model (P3, F1-4) | 4727241 | --fill queue; synthetic books only |
| Downhill calibration check and tuning (P3) | 5a550f1, cb0ca13, 288aacb | mtb_dh backtest --reliability; new defaults prior_n 0.5, half-life 240, junior 0.25 (owner's OK): make-Final log loss 0.397 → 0.361, better in every market, in-sample |
| Downhill ideas tried and not built (P3) | 8963ecc, 46d8875, 288aacb | rider × venue effects, rookie drift, lower Final incident rate, Student-t noise (--eps-df, kept as an off switch), practice weight (flat): Calibration |
| Admin P&L without the replay counterparty | 6ce9ba5 | polymarket-takers on its own line |
Blocked or not started:
| Item | Needs | Who |
|---|---|---|
| Official UCI points scales and standings | enter sports/points/uci_dhi_wc.toml and sports/points/standings/*.toml, then mtb_dh points import / check |
owner |
| UCI IDs in the downhill files | re-download (ChronoRace is blocked here), re-ingest, then merge reported pairs (db merge-athletes 152 491) |
owner, locally |
Stage-aware taker, rookie for profile A, sizing rule, the queue model on recorded books |
live weekends (recorded books) | live events |
| New downhill defaults out of sample | 2026's next rounds | live events |
| First real V2 order | the owner's approval | owner |
| Downhill golden tests after the new defaults | regenerate locally (fixtures aren't in the cloud) | owner, locally |
| Google Cloud move | the owner's choices (database tier, recorder shape, domain) | owner |
| Downhill data items (high priority for the next cloud session, owner 2026-09-28) | slug probing, canonical venue names, Elite/Junior Women, start order, weather, the 2021 PDFs. Most need ChronoRace (prod.chronorace.be): allow it in the environment's network policy first |
next cloud session |
| F1 props (fastest lap, safety car / red flag, rain) | its market kinds go in sports/f1.toml [live], Track A's file |
next session, after Track A merges |
| Kalshi connector (mocked) | F1-9 starts only with the owner's go; Kalshi's API is blocked by the cloud network | owner |
| Public JSON API | the owner's scope: what's public, auth, data terms | owner |
Local checks after merging (the brief's list, plus Track B's):
python -m pytest -m "not live"on the local fixtures, including the skippedtest_variantsand golden tests.- Whistler: its book re-derived from
crowd.jsonl,/liveand replay unchanged. alembic upgrade head(Track B adds no migration).racinglines live agent <round-16 spec> --install, then a dry run of onestep(Track A).- The pre-push hook passes.
- Track B: the downhill golden tests (
tests/test_pipeline_mtb.py) fail after the merge, as expected: the new defaults change their outputs. Review, thenUPDATE_GOLDEN=1 python -m pytest tests/test_pipeline_mtb.py. - Track B:
racinglines model backtest mtb_dh --db --reliabilityshould give about the log losses in Calibration (make-Final 0.361);--prior-n 1.5 --half-life-days 120 --junior-weight 0.5gives the old model. - Track B:
racinglines model backtest f1 --variant rookie --saveto store therookieruns in the owner's database (runs 1288/1289 exist only in the bucket,results/cloud-buildout-track-b/f1-backtests/).
Environment notes (cloud): without the bucket key the database is the committed snapshot: no
model runs, no recorded books, no web users. Tests need TEST_DATABASE_URL=…/racinglines_test (the
fixture drops and re-creates whatever it names). Web page tests need the demo logins maker,
taker (password password) and their strategy profiles, which only the owner's database has.