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Launch sprint: Thu 1 Oct to the soft launch, Thu 8 Oct 2026

One page for the week to the soft launch. Times are PDT with UTC in brackets. It narrows the larger Fantasy soft launch plan to the owner's minimum viable demo (owner, 2026-10-01 22:23Z):

  1. Exchange prices recorded for every listed event (F1, NASCAR, MotoGP on Polymarket, Kalshi, OG.com).
  2. Forecasts wherever a model exists, and trading recommendations on the Strategy pages.
  3. Live viewing of the Lake Placid UCI downhill (2-4 Oct) plus one private-book sim, set up as at Whistler.
  4. One new-user sign-up, tested by hand by the owner (the walkthrough is written in its own thread).
  5. A loss cap on every strategy that touches a live exchange book.

Freeze. The F1 round 16 book runs Thu 1 Oct 20:30 to Sun 4 Oct 00:00 (Fri 03:30Z to Sun 07:00Z). No merge to main in that window unless the owner says so, because every code merge deploys the VM. Fri to Sun is verify-only on production; staging (staging branch, staging.racinglines.bet) may change at any time.

Who. Owner = a step only the owner can take (merge, VM command, decision). Copilot = a one-message handoff the owner pastes into Copilot. Cloud thread = a Claude thread that writes code, docs or handoffs; it never runs long jobs. Mac RC = a Remote Control session on the owner's Mac, only for read-only checks the cloud network blocks (ChronoRace, exchanges); never for Copilot work.

Priorities, in order

# Item Done when Owner of the work
1 Loss cap (PR 14, max_loss = 500 approved by the owner) max_loss really in live/f1/2026-16.toml, merged before Thu 20:30 Cloud thread fixes PR 14; owner merges
2 Lake Placid live view + private-book sim Spec with the ChronoRace event and session keys; racinglines-live-dh@<event> runs on the VM through Sunday's finals Mac RC read-only probe; cloud thread writes the spec and the VM command; owner pastes it (backup first)
3 Prices recorded for every event vm.sh record status shows Kalshi + OG.com books every 5 min through the weekend Owner checks; already running
4 UI round 3 (PR 12, track/app) On staging and checked by Sun, merged Mon Copilot; owner merges Mon
5 One manual sign-up Owner signs up a throwaway user on staging (Sat) and on production (Tue), every step ticked Owner, with the walkthrough thread
6 Off-VM copy of the VM's data (STG-5) A dump and data/archive/markets in the bucket before real users sign up Cloud thread writes the script; owner runs it Tue
7 Forecasts and recommendations visible Markets and Strategy pages show F1, NASCAR (next race) and MotoGP prices and recs on staging Owner checks on staging Wed

Day by day

Thu 1 Oct (today)

  • Owner: merge PR 14 once fixed (max_loss = 500, already approved), before 20:30; R16 tier call at 18:00 (existing routine). Before bed: vm.sh record status and vm.sh status, both green.
  • Cloud thread (PR 14): put the real [live.quoting] max_loss = 500 in the spec, restore or disclose h2h_from, make the title match the diff.
  • Cloud thread (Lake Placid): draft the downhill spec from Whistler's and the VM command for racinglines-live-dh@<event> (argument confirmed in the Lake Placid thread), backup first. Lake Placid is a World Cup round and timed practice may already run today: if the timing page is up, the Mac RC probe starts tonight.

Fri 2 Oct (freeze: verify only)

  • R16 FP1 Thu 21:30, FP2 Fri 01:00. Owner: glance at the Live tab after each session; nothing else on production.
  • Mac RC (read-only): once live.ucimtbworldseries.com shows Lake Placid timing, read the ChronoRace event id and the qualifying and final keys from the page's requests. The cloud thread fills them into the spec.
  • Owner, VM: vm.sh backup <purpose>, then paste the racinglines-live-dh@<event> command for a dry run on timed practice or qualifying, whichever comes first (live view only, book off), to prove the feed. Nothing starts on the VM until the owner pastes it.
  • Copilot: UI round 3 Task 1 (smoke without Events/Athletes) and Task 2 (first-run path), pushed to track/app and then to staging.

Sat 3 Oct (freeze: verify only)

  • R16 qualifying 01:00. Lake Placid downhill qualifying (Eastern time, check the timing page).
  • Owner, VM: if Friday's dry run was missed, run it on qualifying now (live view only, book off).
  • Owner: sign-up test 1 on staging, following the walkthrough; send failures to the walkthrough thread.
  • Copilot: round 3 Task 3 (Markets on a phone) to staging.

Sun 4 Oct (freeze ends 00:00)

  • R16 race 00:00; results about 03:00.
  • Owner, VM: Lake Placid finals on racinglines-live-dh@<event> with the private book on, the same setup as Whistler, cap on. Afterwards stop the unit and run racinglines live report <spec> --pdf on the VM.
  • No production merge today: the downhill book is live.

Mon 5 Oct (merge day)

  • Owner, VM: OWNER-5 (settle, reconcile, report R16; disable [email protected]).
  • Owner, GitHub: merge PR 12 (deploys production), wait for the Actions run, then any other code PR one at a time (STG-6: no two deploys at once).
  • Owner, VM: champion replays, steps 5-7 of the season-replays handoff (backup first).
  • Cloud thread: Lake Placid report folder with SOURCES.md; R16 scorecard summary.

Tue 6 Oct

  • Owner, VM: STG-5 off-VM copy (backup, then upload); vm.sh switch OG_VENUE on if not on already.
  • Owner: sign-up test 2 on production with a throwaway account, then delete or disable it in the admin view.
  • Owner, VM, one at a time with a backup each: the OG.com weekly trades/books timer (its API forgets after a month) and the NASCAR forecast refresh.

Wed 7 Oct

  • Owner, VM: OWNER-9, R17 listings check (Kalshi usually lists 2-4 days out); RACINGLINES_KALSHI_SPRINTS per DEC-12.
  • Owner, staging: the demo walkthrough end to end (sign in, Markets, a forecast, a Strategy rec, Live replay of Lake Placid); list anything broken.
  • Copilot: fixes from that list only; to staging, then one PR. Last code merge of the week by 16:00.

Thu 8 Oct (launch)

  • Owner, 12:00: go/no-go: priorities 1-7 done or cut on purpose.
  • Owner, 18:00: R17 tier call; invite the first users (sign-up is already open on production since PR 7); enable [email protected] before Fri 00:30.

Owner decisions

Decision When Recommendation
Paste the Lake Placid VM command (backup, then racinglines-live-dh@<event>) Fri, when timing is up Yes, dry run first with the book off
Downhill book loss cap Sat Use the same 500 if the downhill spec takes max_loss; if it doesn't, run it as a sim with no exchange link (it has none)
Launch scope Mon The MVP demo above; the full fantasy trading build (book, exchange, settlement) moves to the 22 Oct fallback date
STG-5 off-VM copy before inviting users Tue Yes: the VM disk is the only copy of the newest data
Install the Claude GitHub App on racinglines-public (STG-11) Any time Yes: threads then see PR and CI events
Who gets the first invites Thu 12:00 Five people or fewer; the owner's list

The cut line

If time runs out, cut from the bottom. Above the line ships on Thu 8 Oct; below it moves to after R17.

  1. Loss cap merged (priority 1)
  2. Prices recorded for every listed event (3)
  3. Sign-up tested on production (5)
  4. Off-VM data copy (6)
  5. PR 12 UI round 3 merged (4)
  6. Lake Placid live view and sim (2): if the ChronoRace keys never show, replay Whistler on staging instead

Cut line

  1. Lake Placid report polish and SOURCES.md
  2. New VM timers (OG.com weekly, NASCAR forecast refresh, U9 tapes)
  3. MotoGP calendar ingest (MotoGP next-race price) and Polymarket MotoGP links
  4. Fantasy trading, book, exchange and settlement (DEC-* batch), CI workflow patches (STG-2, STG-6, STG-8), report reproducibility (REP-1 to REP-7)